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TacticalHorizon
the trust horizon for C4ISR and JADC2 AI

JADC2 is moving toward AI-driven battlefield coordination — fusing ISR, SIGINT, and autonomous systems for real-time command support. The catastrophic risk: an AI operating past its predictability horizon generates a lethal recommendation based on effectively random inference. TacticalHorizon certifies, with a mathematical bound, how far to trust any battlefield AI.

IL6air-gapped Fortress deployment capable, FIPS 140-2/3, CMMC L3, NIST AI RMF aligned.
The pain point

Human commanders have no tool today that quantifies how far into the future any AI battlefield recommendation can be trusted before entering chaotic territory. NDAA 2024 provisions and DoD AI Ethics Principles make this a legal requirement, not a feature request.

Use case

A JADC2 node fusing ISR, SIGINT, and OSINT feeds into an AI-driven recommendation engine for command support across five domains.

Without Rebound
  • AI confidently produces recommendations well past its reliable horizon.
  • No domain-resolved predictability view across air, land, maritime, cyber, space.
  • Model selection rationale not reproducible for post-incident review.
  • Integration with existing C2 platforms is bespoke per program.
With Rebound
  • Real-time Lyapunov analysis of dynamic battlefield streams.
  • TacticalHorizon dashboard: classified predictability limits per domain.
  • Model credentialing: every AI recommendation tied to the model that produced it, audited.
  • Integration with AFDEX, JADC2 nodes, GCCS-J via standards-based adapters.
Concrete example

A TacticalHorizon operator view (simulation) refuses a cyber recommendation past k*.

fortress://hg-node-17 · classified · CMMC L3 enclave AIR-GAPPED · IL6 capable
Predictability by domain
Air
6
k* · λ = 0.13
Dense contested environment; short k*
Land
11
k* · λ = 0.08
Adversarial mobility detected 14m ago
Maritime
28
k* · λ = 0.05
Blue-water ops, low tempo
Cyber
3
k* · λ = 0.17
Active intrusion; k* collapsed
Space
42
k* · λ = 0.04
ISR orbit; stable
Operator view · decision support (simulation)
CMD · Cyber domain recommendation REFUSED · k > k*

Request: recommend_action(domain=cyber, horizon_min=15). Current k* for cyber is 3 minutes under active intrusion. Any recommendation at 15 minutes is statistically indistinguishable from noise. TacticalHorizon refuses the call and surfaces the λ, k*, regime, and signed audit record to the operator.

audit_id = ax_th_c0a9f71e · key: kms://nsa/hg-node-17 · chain intact
Ideal customer profile
  • US DoD: DARPA, AFRL, DIU, Army Futures Command
  • NATO member defense ministries and allied nations
  • Prime contractors: Lockheed, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, BAE
  • Defense-tech primes: Anduril, Shield AI, Helsing
Buyers we work with
Program ManagersJoint AI Center (JAIC)AI & Data AcceleratorChief Digital & AI Officer (CDAO)
Typical deployment
DARPA / DIU OTA Prototype
Per contract
$2M–$8M
DoD Program of Record
Multi-year IDIQ
$15M–$50M
Allied Nation License
Per nation (NATO)
$3M–$12M
Defense Prime Integration
Per program
$5M–$20M

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